Coming into the lows of December we published a report to our students suggesting longs where in order though the healthcare, financial, energy and tech dominated markets. We were measuring Institutional Money Flow coming into the markets through Private Equity which bought the markets Dec 18th before the Dec 24th Lows and confirmed during the first few days of January. Once we were positioned, I tweeted on Jan 4th the #BuyTheDip is in full effect for 2019 all the while the media was still negative on how bad a December we had.
In short, if you took your clues from the media or your emotions you most likely missed one of the best BTD opportunities in decades.
Auction Market Theory (AMT) White Paper
What we do here at RedBridge Capital is track (IMF) Institutional Money Flow through COT reports, block trades and large trade imbalances over time. We then use those levels to identify where Institutions are more likely to respond to those levels based on market risk analysis. Our market analysis in the energy space showed us insiders and institutions were buying crude futures and energy oil names during the 10% correction earlier this year. We accumulated positions back in March 2018 while the price of crude oil was at $62 dollars a barrel. To learn more about our consulting services, please email: info@IMFtracker.com
Back in September of 2017, I posted here in the blog that Financials were in trouble. We did experience some increased volatility in the markets, including the largest ever down day of over 1,200 DOW points but as of today, May 11th, 2018 I am posting that financials higher. In fact, the largest market cap sectors within the market being Tech and now financials will clear the way for new market highs.
So here we are again with a crude rally which started April 10th from $62 as you can see with my time stamped tweets. Now that we are touching $72 We are seeing every bank calling for higher oil prices with some predictions of $100 from BofA.
Question, isn't it better to buy low around $62 and Sell high into these bank calls? Of course it is, because that's what they do. When their making bullish calls publicly means they're most likely created volatility to lock in hedges and distribute most of the positions.
In short, its too late to be initiating long positions now in crude.
You can follow me on twitter: @RedBridgeCapitL
We saw "Big-league" uptick in the number of funds buying into the market. Most likely anticipating the corporate tax plan and the market continuing to make new highs onto its march to 24k. Here are the new additions as of 11/4/2017.
For a full list click on the link:
According to bloomberg, the largest oil trade in the world was completed and put in a $46 dollar floor in crude. And this was just announced October 16th, 2017. Our analysis called the floor in crude in June at $43. This annual event, considered a true smart money trade, is called the Mexican Hacienda Hedge. Mexico is the 12th-largest oil producer and one of the world's top oil exporters, giving the country better information about where the market is heading.
The last time I posted about staying away from telecom was October 2016. Fast forward to October 2017 and the sector still sucks. The washout is taking forever because of AAPL.
Oct/12 At&t got crushed 6% in one day as it warned investors the Satellite TV is dead and that its dividend isn't safe. Hopefully this will help this sector continue to unravel so that we could start seeing some Institutional buyers stepping in for some deals.
If we can clear the 2016 lows and start approaching 2009 levels, the best way to start buying is to get long the telecom sector which pays 3.25%. More on this later.
I just updated the model portfolio of stocks being accumulated by institutions and I only found 3 names (last three names at the bottom of snapshot). If you look back at the Dec 2016 names you'll see 30, 40 and 50 funds buying verses now. What this has meant in the past is that funds are preparing for a healthy pullback. We'll see if this is the case this time around. My guess is yes.
I just received my copy of Institutional Investor magazine today in the mail and there is an IMF special report on how a massive cyber-attack on our financial system is coming. What's interesting is the financial sector as shown in the chart below has been sniffing out risk in its sector since August 2017.
My thoughts are how this maybe similar to how the scumbag insiders of Equifax sniffed out their massive breach and sold their stock before the news became public. Maybe the breach of $EFX is just the tip of the ice-berg on how this is all going to go down (the back door if you will). There is a whole lot of very disturbing evidence in this article that this maybe true and coming from North Korea and China. (Maybe the whole nuclear threat from NOKO is a "look over there" move)
"There are many different forms of an attack, but you've got to think about how a banking institution has been positioned on the internet. They have to interface with customers right?" says Jason Truppi former FBI cyber-special agent.
It's also noted in the article that a global financial institution "war game" (operation Resilient Shield) was not about preventing a cyber-attack, but to rehearse what actions should be taken WHEN a cyber attack occurs on critical banking infrastructure. (So in other words they admit they can't do S#%T about it until it's done.)
According to former FBI cyber agents, a consequence of a cyberattack on a country's economy would send a ripple through all industries (i.e. utilities, energy grids, banking, transportation
You may want to withdraw a week or two worth of cash, just in case. (South Korea (a more advanced electronic civilization than the USA) was attacked by NOKO and people couldn't get to their money from banks for 2 weeks )). Oh and be careful of #FakeNews. More on this later....
Financial Index sniffing out "Risk" ?
2008-2017 financial sector chart. We topped in August of 2017.