I'm excited to be back at the same level where oil was going to $20 according to Barron's and Wall Street analysts.  This was the last time I loaded up on oil ETF's, bonds, stocks, and crude futures.  That ended up being a trade I held for over a year.  

Today, April 27, 2017 we've just entered into that same level in 2016 where institutions and their analysts were telling people to sell but guys like Warren Buffet and myself were backing up the truck.  

​It's time to start looking for some oil plays long.  Here is a link to my full story, as of now:   Updated 5/16/17

How to be short-ready for the upcoming downturn

How can you improve your odds of success when selling short a market or stock that’s been going straight up like we’ve seen since November 8th 2016?  One way is to spot heavy sell-offs in huge volume on a Commitment Of Traders (COT) weekly chart. The resource we tracked as Institutional Investors can be found here:  www.cftc.gov

If a market has peaked in price, it then follows that the supply of shares that large commercial funds are willing to dole out to the public outweighs the amount of shares that current holders and new buyers seek to own.  So when the balance shifts from heavy demand to heavy supply, expect a market or stock to fall 5-10% or even more within a single week.  

One way to stay ahead of the rest of the crowd and get better pricing is to look at the markets underlying sectors and cap weighted stocks that make up those sectors and markets.  When a market leader starts to loose upward support you can spot distribution by analyzing the rate of change in the volume.  

 

COT report from Oct-November 2016
Take note of the large asset managers accumulation.

COT Report from Nov-March