In this short clip, I'm working with a student who trades equities using the FREE ThinkorSwim platform. We work with reading the tape "Old School". In fact, this is exactly how I learned to trade before order flow, footprint or my proprietary order flow sequencing algo was ever developed (which I share with all my students). Learn to trade using the basic fundamental principles of the markets and how they auction and never be a slave to those SELLING indicators ever again.
Coming into the lows of December we published a report to our students suggesting longs where in order though the healthcare, financial, energy and tech dominated markets. We were measuring Institutional Money Flow coming into the markets through Private Equity which bought the markets Dec 18th before the Dec 24th Lows and confirmed during the first few days of January. Once we were positioned, I tweeted on Jan 4th the #BuyTheDip is in full effect for 2019 all the while the media was still negative on how bad a December we had.
In short, if you took your clues from the media or your emotions you most likely missed one of the best BTD opportunities in decades.
Auction Market Theory (AMT) White Paper
Tweet Storm #Timestamp
Insiders buying energy
What we do here at RedBridge Capital is track (IMF) Institutional Money Flow through COT reports, block trades and large trade imbalances over time. We then use those levels to identify where Institutions are more likely to respond to those levels based on market risk analysis. Our market analysis in the energy space showed us insiders and institutions were buying crude futures and energy oil names during the 10% correction earlier this year. We accumulated positions back in March 2018 while the price of crude oil was at $62 dollars a barrel. To learn more about our consulting services, please email: info@IMFtracker.com
Back in September of 2017, I posted here in the blog that Financials were in trouble. We did experience some increased volatility in the markets, including the largest ever down day of over 1,200 DOW points but as of today, May 11th, 2018 I am posting that financials higher. In fact, the largest market cap sectors within the market being Tech and now financials will clear the way for new market highs.
Crude Oil trade
So here we are again with a crude rally which started April 10th from $62 as you can see with my time stamped tweets. Now that we are touching $72 We are seeing every bank calling for higher oil prices with some predictions of $100 from BofA.
Question, isn't it better to buy low around $62 and Sell high into these bank calls? Of course it is, because that's what they do. When their making bullish calls publicly means they're most likely created volatility to lock in hedges and distribute most of the positions.
In short, its too late to be initiating long positions now in crude.
You can follow me on twitter: @RedBridgeCapitL
IMF model portfolio additions
We saw "Big-league" uptick in the number of funds buying into the market. Most likely anticipating the corporate tax plan and the market continuing to make new highs onto its march to 24k. Here are the new additions as of 11/4/2017.
For a full list click on the link:
Crude floor is set at $46
According to bloomberg, the largest oil trade in the world was completed and put in a $46 dollar floor in crude. And this was just announced October 16th, 2017. Our analysis called the floor in crude in June at $43. This annual event, considered a true smart money trade, is called the Mexican Hacienda Hedge. Mexico is the 12th-largest oil producer and one of the world's top oil exporters, giving the country better information about where the market is heading.
Telecom bust continued
The last time I posted about staying away from telecom was October 2016. Fast forward to October 2017 and the sector still sucks. The washout is taking forever because of AAPL.
Oct/12 At&t got crushed 6% in one day as it warned investors the Satellite TV is dead and that its dividend isn't safe. Hopefully this will help this sector continue to unravel so that we could start seeing some Institutional buyers stepping in for some deals.
If we can clear the 2016 lows and start approaching 2009 levels, the best way to start buying is to get long the telecom sector which pays 3.25%. More on this later.
October surprise 2017?
I just updated the model portfolio of stocks being accumulated by institutions and I only found 3 names (last three names at the bottom of snapshot). If you look back at the Dec 2016 names you'll see 30, 40 and 50 funds buying verses now. What this has meant in the past is that funds are preparing for a healthy pullback. We'll see if this is the case this time around. My guess is yes.